A doubt suddenly seized the less drunk investors

Again, China has is lying his critics. Just a year ago, many foreign experts announced the bankruptcy of the economic model shaped by Beijing. They assured that the global financial crisis and the sharp slowdown in international trade that had flourished since the 1980s the Chinese companies would undermine the last legitimacy of Communist rule, surviving more than on his only ability to generate a continuous thrust of its domestic product gross. Without growth, the social explosion was inevitable and change policy finally possible. In Beijing, the Government recognized, himself, the dangerousness of the degradation of the global environment and decided to act fast and hard to save its economy by launching a recovery plan presented as giant: 4,000 billion yuan (404 billion euros). With the latest statistics, the Chinese authorities have managed their bet.

In the second quarter, China's growth reached in annual landslide, 7.9, when most of the major industrialized countries remained, they stuck in recession. Economists, Chinese as foreigners, are now convinced that the country will record on the year GDP higher than 8. If exports of products "made in China" are always measured, down by more than 20 from last year, many other indicators are healthy. Investments in fixed capital soared in urban areas of 33.6 over a year in the first half. Long depressed, purchasing managers indices show since the beginning of the summer a resumption of manufacturing activity. Elsewhere, more than 12 million jobs could be created this year in the country. Comforted by these data, the real estate market left on record databases. Shanghai, the stock market increased by 84 between January and early August, before chaining several weeks of confused movements. A doubt suddenly seized the less drunk investors.

Is this euphoria justified If on paper China's growth has apparently regained its form, it, almost exclusively, was generated, since the beginning of the year, by the huge public investment ordered by the power and 7.370 billion yuan of loans granted by the obedient banks in the country. Since the beginning of the year, construction of new infrastructure have been launched by all local authorities. More than 110 yards of highways were opened in the first half. By 2012, the Chinese railway network is expected to grow by more than 25 and next year the country will inaugurate its 190eaéroport.

These projects to absorb millions of workers in the short term are expected to accelerate the modernization of the country and prepare future growth, especially in remote provinces. But the bidding of projects, the lack of coordination between the different communities, who want to beat all records of GDP, and traditional embezzlement weigh on the actual effectiveness of Chinese strategy. Banks, which largely financed the national effort, start to worry. Has correctly, they recognize that some of their creditors have perhaps overestimated the return on investment of their projects or have simply used the fortunes too easily loaned to try their chances on the stock market and real estate markets busy. Since a few weeks, the ghost of bad debts is back, but Beijing wants to hear.

In panic, the Communist power has chosen a quantitative stimulus rather than qualitative. Rather than take advantage of the crisis to enable a rebalancing of its too-dependent growth of exports, the Government chose to freeze the appreciation of the yuan and reconnect with his old recipes of stimulus by public investment, praised for their effectiveness in the short term. Large groups of State, flooded with liquidity, have increased their power and resumed their race to overcapacity when private companies were found, they, in the crisis. Households, that the Executive had promised to the heart of his project of "harmonious society" to encourage domestic demand, have benefited only a few bills purchase to refrigerators and a decrease in tax on cars of small displacements. Lack of tax and social reforms, they are still found only to deal with professional and medical life accidents and, in crisis, selected still boost their savings.

At the end of the year, the Chinese Government will be able to celebrate a stunning GDP increase, brings the country of the place of second world economic power, but it will be in the same time, faced with a more unbalanced than ever growth. If exports of goods "made in China" are not in 2010 increased dynamism, Beijing will be forced to consider a new recovery plan or, finally, must resolve to tackle the complex social and monetary reforms that the country urgently needs.