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After a first duel at Oxford, in Mississippi, September 26, the second televised between Barack Obama and John McCain debate takes place tonight at Nashville (Tennessee). In recent weeks, the financial crisis is changing the report between the two candidates.

The financial crisis

sounding boards

Who benefits the storm on Wall Street Since 15 September, she helped Barack Obama to regain a clear (5-7 points) advantage over John McCain in the polls. Despite its efforts to stand out from the outgoing administration, the Republican candidate suffers the negative economic balance and George w. Bush erratic crisis management. After severely criticized the rescue in extremis of AIG's by nationalization of fact, he had to rally late in the bipartisan financial stabilization plan to stem the crisis. But gymnastics remains difficult for the hero of the Viet Nam, more accustomed to the theatres of military operations only in rooms markets. According to a recent CNN poll, 49 of voters think that Obama is better able to cope with the financial turmoil (against 43 for McCain). The Democratic candidate is surrounded by advice of weight, with the former boss of the Fed, Paul Volcker, Billionaire Warren Buffett and former Secretary Treasury Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers. But, more long term, the financial crisis could seriously compromise its massive investment program in health and education by forcing back on its promises of tax to 95 of households. "Who may still want to win an election in these conditions", said Tom Sowanick, former economist at Merrill Lynch.

The age of the captain, subtle equation

A "maverick" (Maverick), a conformist: so John McCain likes to run and that the American press often portrayed the. With that of "war hero" inherited from the Viet Nam, it is one of the labels most frequently apposed to the Republican candidate. For him, it is a way to stand out from the cumbersome legacy of George w. Bush by forgetting her age seventy-two years, forty-seven years for his Democratic rival. In reality, the Arizona Senator's age could still be an asset with a majority of retired voters of "Swing States" (the pivotal States) in the Midwest and deep America, who see it as a pledge of experience. For most of his supporters, his main asset is his ability to run as a "new man" and independent, all in with a solid "background" inherited from twenty-two years of Senatorial term. Aware that the weight of years could also play against him, John McCain has however chosen as his the spirited Sarah Palin, forty-four years, and Governor of Alaska. A considered choice as risky in view of recent statements "impressionists" of the latter.

The racial question,

a taboo subject

It is "the" issue that could determine the final outcome of a vote probably very tight. And yet, it remained relatively taboo in the campaign. To what extent can the Illinois Senator to forget the color of his skin By choosing not to appear as a "black candidate" (and even less as the candidate of black), Barack Obama in the context of a "post-raciale America" comic in his speech in Philadelphia on March 18. It builds on the deep demographic developments in the United States. According to the latest Census, the proportion of white (not Hispanic) Board will fall from 66 to 46 by 2050. (African-American, Hispanic, Asian, Hawaiian...) minorities will become majority in the age of 18 in 2023 and in the whole of the population by 2042. According to an ABC poll - "USA today", only 13 of blacks who expect a John McCain victory attributed it to a form of racism, while 5 of whites believe that the Republican candidate will prevail consider the racial issue as a key factor. The admission of Jimmy Carter, Obama will, however, having to rely "with whites who have prejudices against Blacks, but does not admit". Unimaginable half a century ago, still impossible 20 years ago, the election of an African-American in the White House remains a major challenge for the America and the rest of the world.

Taxes: reductions

for who

Listen to them, they will both lower taxes. But each refused to believe the other. Barack Obama says that it will reduce taxes on income for 95 of Americans, under the taxation for above 250,000 dollars a year. John McCain wants to lower the corporate tax and proposed to make permanent the tax cuts passed under George Bush, when they expire in 2010. According to Joel Slemrod, Director of the Office of Tax Policy Research, "McCain will collect 100 billion less than Obama, but the latter relieve more middle-income taxpayers. Austan Goolsbee, Professor at the University of Chicago and Senior Economic Adviser to the Democratic candidate, provides that "two thirds of the Obama plan are targeted on Americans earning less than 65,000 dollars per year, versus 6 for McCain." Neither one nor the other do provide substantive reform of public finances and have been the reduction of the budget deficit a priority.

The price of oil,

a hot folder

Attention, highly question! The price of fuel obsession the elector, used motorways. This is why the two candidates have taken care to clarify their agendas in the field of energy. Until the financial crisis is in the campaign, the price of oil was even at the top of the agendas. While Barack Obama focuses on renewable energy ($ 150 billion of investment to create 5 million jobs) and the removal of subsidies for oil and gas companies by making the fight against greenhouse one of its priorities, the Arizona senator has found a carrier theme which led him to win several points in the polls. In asking lifting the Federal moratorium on oil drilling off us coasts, it arises guarantor of energy independence of the United States. An argument paying with the voter base, even if Barack Obama has beautiful game to point out that this is not a short-term solution.

Iraq: pessimistic

and the idealist

Iraq continues to mark fundamental cleavage between the two candidates. They disagree on the timetable of the withdrawal of the troops, Barack Obama is being rendered for a gradual withdrawal over sixteen months that John McCain does not want to give date. The Republican candidate has the look bolted on the immediate objective. In the Senate, against the advice of George w. Bush, he claimed more troops in Iraq, engaging in 2007 which will be a turning point in the field. "I prefer to lose the election that see my country lose a war", he repeatedly assured. Barack Obama sees wider. For him, the priority is to strengthen in Afghanistan, to fight effectively against terrorism, and to bring the Pakistanis to cooperate against Al-Qaida and the Taliban. The two candidates also differ in the analysis of the situation in Iran. If they agree to strengthen the sanctions against that country, Obama considers that it must be done in good understanding with China and the Russia.

The two candidates are realists, able to take into account the complexities of a foreign policy without summarize in an "axis of evil" or a doctrine that gives the right to intervene everywhere by force at the slightest suspicion of terrorism. What distinguishes them, it is the temperament. "McCain is a pessimist who sees the world as a black and dangerous place where, without the American forces at work, evil triumph, observed Fareed Zakaria, a columnist of"newsweek"." Obama believes that America must push the forces of progress in the world and to try to unite the major powers to resolve the major problems.

Health care system:

two competing visions

Health is a subject that fascinates the Americans and the two candidates address with distinct approaches. Barack Obama first wants to make care accessible to the greatest number, with a sort of marketplace for health insurance which would be private insurance and public insurance. On his side, John McCain favors the decrease in the costs of the health care system, on the budget of the public power and the employers. It proposes to tax health insurance to individuals in exchange for a tax credit, in the idea that this will attract those who are uninsured today. "McCain promotes a deregulation of the health care market and wants to regain power in the States, observed Paul Dutton, Professor at Northern Arizona University." This seems a good idea, but given the current crisis, it is a bit awkward to distribute risk. "According to the Tax Policy Center, an independent, Barack Obama proposals would help to cover 34 of the 47 million Americans who lack health, against 5 million for the Republican candidate. But the financial crisis is over there and candidates know that they will have to revise their ambitions downward.